Reality Therapy for Surreal Times
It is possible for many dastardly conspiracies to be true, in whole or in part. The history of the United States federal government is one of several programs and initiatives that were in fact conspiracies, and were dastardly. There is solid evidence for these. However, a couple of things that are of the utmost importance. One is that the actual conspiracies were often along the lines of racist, fascist, oppressive exertion of state power from a secret position. For example, go study up on the assassination of Fred Hampton. Much is now known that was hidden at the time.
The other thing that is really important is that, in my opinion, the conspiracy mindset itself is toxic. The conspiracy mindset starts from a toxic and damaging place. It is a form of neuro-atypical disorientation, predisposing people to deluded and damaging experiences of the world. The conspiracy mindset makes people vulnerable, easily manipulated, hateful, ideologically driven, and provides a powerful distraction from the imperatives of actually engaging in one’s community and being an actor and agent of legitimate change. One of the key reasons that I do not spend much time or energy with conspiracy theories is that, from the very beginning, I find the conspiracy mindset toxic, poisonous, delusional, distorted, and intellectually weak.
My fundamental epistemology is Bayesian. I form beliefs based on evidence. If I get new evidence that is reliable and confirmed, I work to change my beliefs. But this epistemology absolutely requires very careful and skeptical vetting of information and its source. The central rupture of our times is the successful undermining of the basic concept that reliable, accurate, and real information is available. How often lately have I ended up dismissed by a conspiracy cult member who is able to handily reject evidence contrary to their world view by simply discrediting the source. The President has made that a very popular evasive strategy indeed. But the conspiracy oriented mind is not in search of information in the first place. The conspiracy oriented mind is, instead, in search of confirming evidence, and uses bias as a form of bad faith imitation thinking. The confirmation bias in all conspiracy minds is the most powerful element in the delusional sickness of looking for ways to “connect the dots.”
Only one example recently that I find alarming and hilarious at the same time: The President ended his (admittedly weird) announcement tweet regarding being positive for COVID with the word TOGETHER! Q’s and other delusional conspiracy theorists parsed that as a message about the impending arrest of Hillary Clinton. How, you ask? Obviously: TOGETHER = to get her. Obviously. It may seem overly harsh to call people who believe in this hidden message “delusional” but, in reality, what other phrase would capture the ability to jump to that conclusion and believe it?
People sometimes ask me if I trust “the government” when I say I do not get into conspiracy stuff. This is not relevant. It’s not a place to start in order to form a way to live sanely and with useful perspective in the world. For me, rejecting the conspiracy mindset is the best way to start a relationship with the real world. Adjusting to an evidence-based world view where beliefs are lightly held and subject to change based on reliable new evidence is the next step.
The idea is fairly quantitative. Bayesian epistemology is based on the core concept of “the pragmatic self defeat test,” and maintaining a self awareness of “rational degrees of belief,” or “confidence in one’s beliefs.” For example, what is my belief and my degree of confidence in my belief about the President having COVID? At first, I didn’t believe it, based only on the President’s tweet. The Washington Post has counted approximately 25,000 lies having been told by the President since he was elected. Why should I have a high level of confidence in anything the President says, given this very strong prior disposition to prevaricating? However, some other evidence started coming in. I believed it at about 60%. Now I am about 90% certain it’s true. On the other hand, I am only at about 20% regarding what his doctor has been saying recently. But that is because of fairly reliable conflicting evidence. However, since the statements about the President having a more serious case were back channel and off the record, sort of, I’m also skeptical of that. I don’t need to go over into “there’s a huge cover up and a conspiracy and the President is already dead!” or whatever. I have various levels of confidence in my beliefs, based on the best information I can find. If information comes in from a reliable source that is contrary to a current belief, I work to change the belief, not discredit the information or be paranoid about it.
I call this “reality therapy.” Within a solid Bayesian framework, it also deploys the old standby of Occam’s Razor. What’s the simplest explanation for what is happening? One of the telltale signs of bad faith, fake and confirmation bias based epistemology is the tendency for a theory to be incredibly complicated. I was recently briefly in conversation with a person who does not believe “the official story” about a hijacked jet crashing into the Pentagon on 9/11, because there is no video footage. The official story is that video footage was suppressed for national security reasons. I find this a suitable explanation. It’s simple, and is consistent with other policies around images of the Pentagon, and is a lot more simple and clear than what it would mean to try to cover up something on such a grand scale.
Another powerful and salutary “razor” to keep in the tool kit is Hanlon’s Razor, which states, “never attribute to malice what can be adequately explained by stupidity.” This, especially in combination with Occam’s Razor, is a very powerful tool these days especially, with an egregious and voluminous amount of sheer stupidity on display by the minute. For example, many Q’s and other delusional cult members have been claiming that Republicans are suddenly testing positive for COVID because the demonic Democrats have infected them through some nefarious plot. In fact, check out the video footage of the gathering for the new SCOTUS nominee, and compare to the news of who is testing positive. Hanlon’s Razor provides a far better explanation than some sort of dastardly Left Wing COVID spreading conspiracy theory.
So, the sane and sound approach to living in a complex, truly bizarre world, for me, is based on a few solid axioms.
Axiom 1: Use a Bayesian framework and wear my beliefs lightly enough that if I get credible new information, I can adjust my beliefs.
Axiom 2: Yes, credible information with a reliable basis is actually available.
Axiom 3: Apply Occam’s Razor when there’s a choice between a simple explanation based on credible evidence versus a complex explanation based on unreliable or obviously biased sources.
Axiom 4: Apply Hanlon’s Razor and be realistic about human incompetence. Many conspiracy theories rely on a concept of human skill in orchestration and planning and implementation that is has a laughable level of efficiency and genius.
Reality therapy is no small thing. To me, it’s clear it could actually change the course of history, currently. It’s a reassuring way to get your feet back on the ground. It is not useful for deprogramming those who are already, sadly, lost to the sickness of cult conspiracy thinking. But it could be a powerful preventive.
